Kadiri muda wa kura ya maoni kuhusu Katiba Inayopendekezwa unavyowadia, wananchi hawajaamua “ndiyo” au “hapana”Lakini wanatamani kuwepo kwa uwajibikaji zaidi katika katiba mpya
1 Aprili 2015, Dar es Salaam: Wakati kura ya maoni inakaribia, wananchi wamejigawa katikati. Zaidi ya nusu yao (asilimia 52) wanasema wataunga mkono Katiba Inayopendekezwa. Lakini mwananchi mmoja kati ya wanne (asilimia 26), sawa na nusu ya wanao tayarajia kuiunga mkono katiba, wanasema wataipinga. Mwananchi mmoja kati ya watano (asilimia 22) bado hajamua.
Mnamo mwaka 2014, wakati rasimu ya pili ya Tume ya Mabadiliko ya Katiba (CRC) inajadiliwa, wananchi wengi (asilimia 65) walisema wangepiga kura kuikubali rasimu hiyo, na wananchi wachache (asilimia 21) walisema wangeipinga. Ingawa takwimu zinaonyesha kuwa Katiba Inayopendekezwa ingepitishwa na wananchi wa Tanzania Bara, tofauti kati ya makundi haya imezidi kuwa finyu.
Maoni ya wananchi yanaonyesha wazi mashaka yaliyopo katika mchakato mzima wa kuibadili katiba. Mwezi mmoja tu kabla ya siku ya kupiga kura, uandikishaji wa wapiga kura bado haujakamilika. Nusu ya wananchi (asilimia 47) wanafikiri kuwa uchaguzi mkuu ujao utafanyika chini ya katiba mpya, lakini idadi ndogo (asilimia 30) inafikiri kuwa uchaguzi huo utafanyika chini ya katiba ya sasa.
Matokeo haya yametolewa na Twaweza katika muhtasari wenye jina la: Kuelekea Kura ya Maoni | Maoni ya Watanzania kuhusu Katiba Inayopendekezwa. Muhtasari huu umetokana na takwimu za Sauti za Wananchi, utafiti wa kwanza barani Afrika wenye uwakilishi wa kitaifa unaofanyika kwa njia ya simu za mkononi (www.twaweza.org/sauti). Muhtasari huu unajumuisha maoni ya wananchi wa Tanzania Bara (Zanzibar haikuhusishwa katika utafiti huu) juu ya Katiba Inayopendekezwa. Takwimu hizi zinatokana na duru la 29 ya Sauti za Wananchi. Jumla ya wahojiwa 1,399 walipigiwa simu kati ya Januari 27 na Februari 17, 2015. Matokeo mengine yanatokana na duru la 5 la Sauti za Wananchi, (iliyowahoji watu 1,708 kati ya Julai 16 na Julai 30, 2013) na duru la 14 la Sauti za Wananchi (iliyowahoji watu 1,550 kati ya Februari 12 na Machi 4, 2014). Takwimu hizi zimetumika kufuatilia mwenendo wa muda mrefu. Ni muhimu kukumbuka kuwa mahojiano haya yalihusisha makundi yote ya wananchi wa Tanzania Bara.
Tofauti kati ya “ndiyo”’ na “hapana” ulipungua kati ya mwezi Machi 2014 na Februari 2015, kipindi kilichoainisha mabadiliko mengi katika mchakato mzima wa kubadili katiba. Mabadiliko haya yaliyotokea kati ya rasimu ya pili ya Tume ya Mabadiliko ya Katiba na rasimu ya Katiba Inayopendekezwa yanaleta wasiwasi baina ya wananchi. Wananchi wanne kati ya kumi (asilimia 39) wameonesha kuipendelea Katiba Inayopendekezwa. Idadi iliyo ni sawa na ile (asilimi 41) ya wanaoipendelea rasimu ya pili ya katiba.
Hata hivyo, kuna tofauti kubwa kati ya rasimu hizi mbili. Wananchi walipohojiwa kuhusu vifungu maalumu, majibu yao yalikuwa ya uwazi zaidi. Wananchi nane kati ya kumi (asilimia 80) hawakubaliani na kuondolewa kwa kifungu cha kuwawajibisha wabunge wanaposhindwa kutekeleza majukumu yao. Idadi inayokaribia hiyo Asilimia 78 ya wananchi hawakubaliani na kuondolewa kwa kifungu cha uwazi na uwajibikaji kwenye orodha ya tunu za taifa. Wananchi saba kati ya kumi (asilimia 70) hawakubaliani na kufutwa kwa kifungu cha ukomo (miaka 15) wa mbunge kushika ofisi. Kwa upande mwingine, wananchi wachache (silimia 36) hawakubaliani na kubadili muundo wa Muungano kutoka serikali 3 kubakia kuwa wa serikali 2.
Je, wananchi wanakubaliana na UKAWA kususia vikao vya Bunge la Katiba na ushawishi wake kwa wananchi kususia kura ya maoni? Kati ya wananchi waliosikia minong’ono juu ya UKAWA kususia vikao vya Bunge la Katiba, asilimia 66 wanapinga hatua hiyo. Asilimia 68 wanapinga ushawishi kwa wananchi kususia kura ya maoni na robo tatu (asilimia 75) ya wananchi wanasema hawatasusia kura ya maoni.
Elvis Mushi, Mratibu wa Sauti za Wananchi alitoa maoni yake kuhusu matokeo haya nakusema “Mashaka yaliyopo juu ya kukamilika kwa mchakato wa mabadiliko ya katiba na kubadilika kwa mwenendo wa mchakato huo kumesababisha mashaka kwa wananchi. Hali hii ndio inayosababisha maoni ya wananchi kugawanyika katikati kuhusiana na maswala yote muhimu”
Aidan Eyakuze, Mkurugenzi Mtendaji wa Twaweza, akaongeza “Kuna mambo matatu yanayojitokeza kutokana na maoni haya ya wananchi. Jambo la kwanza ni kwamba kura ya “ndiyo” kwa Katiba Iliyopendekezwa haina uhakika. Tofauti iliyopo ni finyu na wananchi wameonesha kwamba kura hii inaweza kubadilika wakati wote katika mchakato huu. Pili, kuna kilio kilicho wazi kuhusu umuhimu wa katiba kusisitiza maswala ya uwazi na uwajibikaji. Wananchi wameunga mkono kwa nguvu zote vifungu vinavyoimarisha uwajibikaji. Changamoto kubwa zilizopo katika upatikanaji wa huduma za kijamii na kuwepo kwa tatizo kubwa la rushwa vyote vimekuwa na athari kubwa na wananchi wanatafuta njia za kuwawajibisha viongozi kwa matendo yao. Tatu, wananchi hawajashawishika kuchukua hatua za nguvu za kuleta mabadiliko. Wito wa UKAWA wa kususia kura ya maoni haujawavutia na wananchi wengi hawauungi mkono. Mambo haya matatu yatakuwa changamoto kubwa kwa viongozi wa ngazi zote kuamini kwamba mawazo yao yanawakilisha maoni ya wananchi.”
---- Mwisho ----
As referendum deadline draws near, citizens are undecided about their voteHowever they are firm in their desire for stronger accountability in a new constitution
1 April 2015, Dar es Salaam: As the deadline to hold a referendum on the proposed constitution draws near, citizens’ views are largely split. Just over half of citizens (52%) say they would vote For the proposed draft. One out of four (26%, or half of those in favour) say they will vote Against. Slightly more than one in five (22%) are undecided.
In 2014, when the second draft from the Constitutional Review Commission (CRC) was being debated by the Constituent Assembly, a larger group (65%) said that they would vote for the CRC draft to pass and fewer citizens (21%) said they would vote Against the proposed draft at the time. Although the numbers still indicate that the proposed constitution would pass on Mainland Tanzania, the margins have tightened.
Citizens’ views also reflect the uncertainty surrounding the whole process. Just over a month before the deadline, the voter registration process is incomplete. Half of citizens (47%) think that the next general elections will take place under a new constitution, but a significant minority (30%) think the elections will take place under the current constitution.
These findings were released by Twaweza in a research brief titled Towards the Referendum: Tanzanians’ views on the proposed draft of the constitution. The brief is based on data from Sauti za Wananchi, Africa’s first nationally representative high-frequency mobile phone survey. The findings are based on data collected from 1,399 respondents across Mainland Tanzania (Zanzibar is not covered in these results) in January and February 2015. Previous rounds of Sauti za Wananchi (Fifth round: July 2013 and Fourteenth Round: February / March 2014) are used to track trends over time. It is important to note that polling covered a representative sample of all citizens in Mainland Tanzania.
The smaller gap between the “yes” and “no” vote that has emerged between the March 2014 and February 2015 surveys may reflect the many twists and turns in the constitutional review process. The substantive changes between the second CRC draft and the proposed draft appear to have created some uncertainty among citizens. Four out of ten citizens (39%) prefer the proposed draft and a similar number (41%) prefer the second CRC draft.
There are significant differences between the two drafts. When citizens were asked about specific clauses or issues, the results are much clearer. Eight out of ten citizens (80%) disagree with the removal of the clause that allows citizens to oust their MP for non-performance. A similar number (78%) disagree with the removal of openness, transparency and accountability from the list of national values. Seven out of ten (70%) disagree with the removal of the clause that sets three-year term limits for MPs. On the other hand, far fewer citizens (36%) disagree with the removal of the three government structure for the Mainland and Zanzibar.
Do citizens support the UKAWA boycott of the Constituent Assembly and its calls for citizens to boycott the referendum itself? Among those who had heard about the UKAWA boycott of the Constituent Assembly, 66% were against it. A similar number of citizens (68%) are against the boycott of the actual referendum and a full three-quarters (75%) of citizens say they will not participate in the boycott.
Elvis Mushi, Coordinator of Sauti za Wananchi commented on the findings “The uncertainty around the conclusion of the constitutional review process, and the dramatic turns in the process so far have led to uncertainty among citizens. Citizen opinion is split on a number of key issues.”
Aidan Eyakuze, Executive Director of Twaweza, added “There are three clear messages from citizens in these data. First, a Yes vote for the proposed draft of the constitution is not a sure bet. The margins are small and citizens’ views have, rightly, been changing throughout the constitutional review process. Second, there is a clear call for a constitutional emphasis on transparency and accountability. Citizens have been hugely supportive of articles that enhance accountability. Chronic service delivery challenges and revelations of large-scale corruption have clearly taken their toll and citizens are looking for ways to hold leaders responsible for their actions. Third, citizens remain unconvinced by more assertive and robust collective action. UKAWA’s call to boycott the referendum has not resonated with them. Most citizens are against it. These messages should challenge the confidence of leaders across the board that their positions represent the views of citizens. ”
---- Ends ----
Risha Chande
1 Aprili 2015, Dar es Salaam: Wakati kura ya maoni inakaribia, wananchi wamejigawa katikati. Zaidi ya nusu yao (asilimia 52) wanasema wataunga mkono Katiba Inayopendekezwa. Lakini mwananchi mmoja kati ya wanne (asilimia 26), sawa na nusu ya wanao tayarajia kuiunga mkono katiba, wanasema wataipinga. Mwananchi mmoja kati ya watano (asilimia 22) bado hajamua.
Mnamo mwaka 2014, wakati rasimu ya pili ya Tume ya Mabadiliko ya Katiba (CRC) inajadiliwa, wananchi wengi (asilimia 65) walisema wangepiga kura kuikubali rasimu hiyo, na wananchi wachache (asilimia 21) walisema wangeipinga. Ingawa takwimu zinaonyesha kuwa Katiba Inayopendekezwa ingepitishwa na wananchi wa Tanzania Bara, tofauti kati ya makundi haya imezidi kuwa finyu.
Maoni ya wananchi yanaonyesha wazi mashaka yaliyopo katika mchakato mzima wa kuibadili katiba. Mwezi mmoja tu kabla ya siku ya kupiga kura, uandikishaji wa wapiga kura bado haujakamilika. Nusu ya wananchi (asilimia 47) wanafikiri kuwa uchaguzi mkuu ujao utafanyika chini ya katiba mpya, lakini idadi ndogo (asilimia 30) inafikiri kuwa uchaguzi huo utafanyika chini ya katiba ya sasa.
Matokeo haya yametolewa na Twaweza katika muhtasari wenye jina la: Kuelekea Kura ya Maoni | Maoni ya Watanzania kuhusu Katiba Inayopendekezwa. Muhtasari huu umetokana na takwimu za Sauti za Wananchi, utafiti wa kwanza barani Afrika wenye uwakilishi wa kitaifa unaofanyika kwa njia ya simu za mkononi (www.twaweza.org/sauti). Muhtasari huu unajumuisha maoni ya wananchi wa Tanzania Bara (Zanzibar haikuhusishwa katika utafiti huu) juu ya Katiba Inayopendekezwa. Takwimu hizi zinatokana na duru la 29 ya Sauti za Wananchi. Jumla ya wahojiwa 1,399 walipigiwa simu kati ya Januari 27 na Februari 17, 2015. Matokeo mengine yanatokana na duru la 5 la Sauti za Wananchi, (iliyowahoji watu 1,708 kati ya Julai 16 na Julai 30, 2013) na duru la 14 la Sauti za Wananchi (iliyowahoji watu 1,550 kati ya Februari 12 na Machi 4, 2014). Takwimu hizi zimetumika kufuatilia mwenendo wa muda mrefu. Ni muhimu kukumbuka kuwa mahojiano haya yalihusisha makundi yote ya wananchi wa Tanzania Bara.
Tofauti kati ya “ndiyo”’ na “hapana” ulipungua kati ya mwezi Machi 2014 na Februari 2015, kipindi kilichoainisha mabadiliko mengi katika mchakato mzima wa kubadili katiba. Mabadiliko haya yaliyotokea kati ya rasimu ya pili ya Tume ya Mabadiliko ya Katiba na rasimu ya Katiba Inayopendekezwa yanaleta wasiwasi baina ya wananchi. Wananchi wanne kati ya kumi (asilimia 39) wameonesha kuipendelea Katiba Inayopendekezwa. Idadi iliyo ni sawa na ile (asilimi 41) ya wanaoipendelea rasimu ya pili ya katiba.
Hata hivyo, kuna tofauti kubwa kati ya rasimu hizi mbili. Wananchi walipohojiwa kuhusu vifungu maalumu, majibu yao yalikuwa ya uwazi zaidi. Wananchi nane kati ya kumi (asilimia 80) hawakubaliani na kuondolewa kwa kifungu cha kuwawajibisha wabunge wanaposhindwa kutekeleza majukumu yao. Idadi inayokaribia hiyo Asilimia 78 ya wananchi hawakubaliani na kuondolewa kwa kifungu cha uwazi na uwajibikaji kwenye orodha ya tunu za taifa. Wananchi saba kati ya kumi (asilimia 70) hawakubaliani na kufutwa kwa kifungu cha ukomo (miaka 15) wa mbunge kushika ofisi. Kwa upande mwingine, wananchi wachache (silimia 36) hawakubaliani na kubadili muundo wa Muungano kutoka serikali 3 kubakia kuwa wa serikali 2.
Je, wananchi wanakubaliana na UKAWA kususia vikao vya Bunge la Katiba na ushawishi wake kwa wananchi kususia kura ya maoni? Kati ya wananchi waliosikia minong’ono juu ya UKAWA kususia vikao vya Bunge la Katiba, asilimia 66 wanapinga hatua hiyo. Asilimia 68 wanapinga ushawishi kwa wananchi kususia kura ya maoni na robo tatu (asilimia 75) ya wananchi wanasema hawatasusia kura ya maoni.
Elvis Mushi, Mratibu wa Sauti za Wananchi alitoa maoni yake kuhusu matokeo haya nakusema “Mashaka yaliyopo juu ya kukamilika kwa mchakato wa mabadiliko ya katiba na kubadilika kwa mwenendo wa mchakato huo kumesababisha mashaka kwa wananchi. Hali hii ndio inayosababisha maoni ya wananchi kugawanyika katikati kuhusiana na maswala yote muhimu”
Aidan Eyakuze, Mkurugenzi Mtendaji wa Twaweza, akaongeza “Kuna mambo matatu yanayojitokeza kutokana na maoni haya ya wananchi. Jambo la kwanza ni kwamba kura ya “ndiyo” kwa Katiba Iliyopendekezwa haina uhakika. Tofauti iliyopo ni finyu na wananchi wameonesha kwamba kura hii inaweza kubadilika wakati wote katika mchakato huu. Pili, kuna kilio kilicho wazi kuhusu umuhimu wa katiba kusisitiza maswala ya uwazi na uwajibikaji. Wananchi wameunga mkono kwa nguvu zote vifungu vinavyoimarisha uwajibikaji. Changamoto kubwa zilizopo katika upatikanaji wa huduma za kijamii na kuwepo kwa tatizo kubwa la rushwa vyote vimekuwa na athari kubwa na wananchi wanatafuta njia za kuwawajibisha viongozi kwa matendo yao. Tatu, wananchi hawajashawishika kuchukua hatua za nguvu za kuleta mabadiliko. Wito wa UKAWA wa kususia kura ya maoni haujawavutia na wananchi wengi hawauungi mkono. Mambo haya matatu yatakuwa changamoto kubwa kwa viongozi wa ngazi zote kuamini kwamba mawazo yao yanawakilisha maoni ya wananchi.”
---- Mwisho ----
As referendum deadline draws near, citizens are undecided about their voteHowever they are firm in their desire for stronger accountability in a new constitution
1 April 2015, Dar es Salaam: As the deadline to hold a referendum on the proposed constitution draws near, citizens’ views are largely split. Just over half of citizens (52%) say they would vote For the proposed draft. One out of four (26%, or half of those in favour) say they will vote Against. Slightly more than one in five (22%) are undecided.
In 2014, when the second draft from the Constitutional Review Commission (CRC) was being debated by the Constituent Assembly, a larger group (65%) said that they would vote for the CRC draft to pass and fewer citizens (21%) said they would vote Against the proposed draft at the time. Although the numbers still indicate that the proposed constitution would pass on Mainland Tanzania, the margins have tightened.
Citizens’ views also reflect the uncertainty surrounding the whole process. Just over a month before the deadline, the voter registration process is incomplete. Half of citizens (47%) think that the next general elections will take place under a new constitution, but a significant minority (30%) think the elections will take place under the current constitution.
These findings were released by Twaweza in a research brief titled Towards the Referendum: Tanzanians’ views on the proposed draft of the constitution. The brief is based on data from Sauti za Wananchi, Africa’s first nationally representative high-frequency mobile phone survey. The findings are based on data collected from 1,399 respondents across Mainland Tanzania (Zanzibar is not covered in these results) in January and February 2015. Previous rounds of Sauti za Wananchi (Fifth round: July 2013 and Fourteenth Round: February / March 2014) are used to track trends over time. It is important to note that polling covered a representative sample of all citizens in Mainland Tanzania.
The smaller gap between the “yes” and “no” vote that has emerged between the March 2014 and February 2015 surveys may reflect the many twists and turns in the constitutional review process. The substantive changes between the second CRC draft and the proposed draft appear to have created some uncertainty among citizens. Four out of ten citizens (39%) prefer the proposed draft and a similar number (41%) prefer the second CRC draft.
There are significant differences between the two drafts. When citizens were asked about specific clauses or issues, the results are much clearer. Eight out of ten citizens (80%) disagree with the removal of the clause that allows citizens to oust their MP for non-performance. A similar number (78%) disagree with the removal of openness, transparency and accountability from the list of national values. Seven out of ten (70%) disagree with the removal of the clause that sets three-year term limits for MPs. On the other hand, far fewer citizens (36%) disagree with the removal of the three government structure for the Mainland and Zanzibar.
Do citizens support the UKAWA boycott of the Constituent Assembly and its calls for citizens to boycott the referendum itself? Among those who had heard about the UKAWA boycott of the Constituent Assembly, 66% were against it. A similar number of citizens (68%) are against the boycott of the actual referendum and a full three-quarters (75%) of citizens say they will not participate in the boycott.
Elvis Mushi, Coordinator of Sauti za Wananchi commented on the findings “The uncertainty around the conclusion of the constitutional review process, and the dramatic turns in the process so far have led to uncertainty among citizens. Citizen opinion is split on a number of key issues.”
Aidan Eyakuze, Executive Director of Twaweza, added “There are three clear messages from citizens in these data. First, a Yes vote for the proposed draft of the constitution is not a sure bet. The margins are small and citizens’ views have, rightly, been changing throughout the constitutional review process. Second, there is a clear call for a constitutional emphasis on transparency and accountability. Citizens have been hugely supportive of articles that enhance accountability. Chronic service delivery challenges and revelations of large-scale corruption have clearly taken their toll and citizens are looking for ways to hold leaders responsible for their actions. Third, citizens remain unconvinced by more assertive and robust collective action. UKAWA’s call to boycott the referendum has not resonated with them. Most citizens are against it. These messages should challenge the confidence of leaders across the board that their positions represent the views of citizens. ”
---- Ends ----
Risha Chande
Senior Advisor, Communications
Twaweza
Rudi Juu
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